Can there be an India-Pakistan war in 2014?
Within a last one month or so, there has been a lot of activity at India-Pakistan border or what is called LOC.
Every single day, Indian media carries the report of the number of border out-posts of BSF being targeted by Pakistani Rangers and I am sure, the same would be happening on the other side of the fence too.
While, these skirmishes are routine and continue to happen time-to-time, specifically prior to the onset of winter and hence a lot of people are believing that it is not a big reason to worry.
Some people are going ahead and rightly suggesting that this is due to the ongoing internal political crisis that Pakistan is suffering, and the intense activity on LOC, could be just a reason for diverting the Pakistani people’s attention from what is happening there. And that there should not be any further cause of worry.
But in fact, that is the cause of worry...
Whatever happens in Pakistan is very predictable, the politics of Pakistan follows a certain path. History has repeated more itself in Pakistan, than anywhere else and that’s what makes the current activity on the border, a cause to worry.
The three musketeers involved currently in the politics of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, Raheel Sharif and Imran Khan, would all benefit if there is a battle, which breaks out with India.
Henceforth, the three musketeers are referred to as sharif1, Sharif2 and Imran for brevity.
Let us take the case of Sharif1, first.
Sharif1 has already blinked once, earlier, in 1999.
Musharraf put a gun to the head of Sharif1 and gave him a choice - Coup or War?
Sharif1 blinked and agreed for a battle with India, which is henceforth known as Kargil War ( so much for a war, restricted to at best 3 sectors).
Musharraf, infact never wanted a full-scale war with India and he planned the war, its beginning and its demise, very methodically. It was an immaculate execution on part of Musharraf, to ensue a peaceful coup in October 1999.
Just about 4 months or so after the Kargil battle, Musharraf double-crossed Sharif1 and replaced him with himself.
Sharif1 has got back his “Gaddi” or seat of power, after 14 arduous years. Now with all this turmoil happening in Pakistan, where on one front he is getting cornered by the Taliban, which has become a pain in the ass and on the other hand, there is the party of Imran Khan, which has seized the opportunity.
Slowly and steadily, things seem to be moving out of the hand of Sharif1, just when he almost seemed to seize control of the matters, by bending to huge pressure from Sharif2 and others in the Pakistani Army to be ruthless against Taliban.
He has blinked before, on being cornered and giving the circumstances, and for the fact that its been just a year of him getting back to power after 14 long arduous years, he could be almost on the verge of blinking again, and it is a very strong possibility.
A battle with India, would divert attention from all the problems that has been plaguing Pakistan, For every politician of Pakistan, a battle with India is the ultimate Panacea!
And trust me, Sharif1 would never hesitate to use it...
Now let us focus our attention to Sharif2.
A Pakistani General, dreams of only one thing, day-and-night, to wage a war against India. And this is for historical reasons, as you might be aware of.
Also, this brings to fore, a possibility of a huge upswing in power, compared to the bureaucracy, and with ample inspirations of the past Generals; Haq and Musharraf, a possibility of coming to power.
With all things coming to equal, even then Pakistani Army General has an upper hand, in usual course of run. The Prime Ministers and other bureaucracy are loathed and many a times, considered , well to mildly put, cowards !
Sharif2 is an ambitious chap. He has already won “Tamgha-E-Istaqlal” (Escalation versus India Medal) and without any reason of doubt, he would like to achieve a closure, beyond that medal. Also, this medal means, he has now an onus. A kind of responsible weight bearing on his shoulders. To wage a war against India.
Now Sharif2 also has personal score to settle. His brother was killed in 1971 war with India and was awarded “Nishan-E-Haidar”, the highest Pakistani gallantry award. But, “Nishan-E-Haidars” are not meant to heal the wounds, and in one way, it can be gauged from the fact that, Sharif2 got commision in his brother’s battalion only, after graduating from PMA Kakul.
So a war with India, would avenge his brother’s death and might just make him the President also. And always remember, the burden of “Tamgha-E-Istaqlal” is a very big burden.
Now, let us take the case of Imran...
He is a very shrewd Pathan and has calculated his all moves very methodically.
Would you wait for one year, to protest against the mal-practises(if they happened) of general election?
Do you think Congress Party would have waited till June 2015, to launch a protest for April 2014 elections in India?
But, probably,Imran is a man of great patience?
Or, Imran is a man of great tactics?
Well, later could be true.
He perfectly chose the moment when, a new Indian Prime Minister has taken oath and is considered to be a hard-liner.
Also, Imran knows Sharif1 very well. He knows that Sharif1 can be cornered and once cornered, he can blink, like in 1999.
So if he blinks, he would do, the very obvious thing, which is currently happening at LOC. An Indian Government led by hard-liners would be expected to retaliate in the same measure.
All Imran, now needs to do, is to twist Sharif1, a bit more, and a war has all the probability of breaking out between, India and Pakistan.
So can he become the Prime Minister of Pakistan?
Yes, if there is a war between India and Pakistan.
Imran has been always Pro-Taliban and has strongly opposed the Pakistani military actions in North-Waziristan. It is very reasonable to assume, that he has tacit support of the hard-liners and Taliban.
At the moment of reckoning, he can cut a deal between Sharif2 and Taliban. Wherein, he becomes the PM, and Pakistani Army and ISI gets Taliban monster of their back and Taliban gets one of its strongest supporter, as PM.
It would be win-win for everyone.
So now all this makes, amply clear, that current scenario suggests, that among the 3 musketeers involved in current situation in Pakistan, given a chance, all 3 of them, would favour a war against, India.
And the BJP government, still reeling from the fact that “Achchey din nahin aaye” and recent assembly by-polls losses, will have to show its muscle. There is no other option for the hard-liners in India.
And hence, author concludes that, a war between India and Pakistan, is not a far fletched possibility.
Not a full-scale war, but yes, a Kargil like battle, definitely !
Unless, a better sense prevails over everyone...
Unless, a better sense prevails over everyone...